Local Election Conclusions – Wales

Next up is the conclusions from the local elections in Wales, where there was also local elections for every single council.  There are the same problems with independnet votes but not to the same issues as Scotland and no result has had to be excluded.


As before I’ve taken local electoral divisions and assigned them to a constituency based on their boundaries.  This was a lot smoother in Wales with very little overlap across constituencies.



The overall predicted seat totals for Wales are:

  • Labour: 22 (-3 vs 2015)
  • Conservative: 8 (-3 vs 2015)
  • Plaid Cymru: 8 (+5 vs 2015)
  • Liberal Democrat: 2 (+1 vs 2015)


Constituency by constituency:

Constituency Predicted 2017 Winner Change from 2015
Aberavon LAB No change
Aberconwy CON No change
Alyn & Deeside LAB No change
Arfon PC No change
Blaenau Gwent LAB No change
Brecon & Radnorshire LD LD gain from Con
Bridgend LAB No change
Caerphilly PC PC gain from LAB
Cardiff Central LD LD gain from LAB
Cardiff North CON No change
Cardiff South & Penarth LAB No change
Cardiff West LAB No change
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr PC No change
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South PC PC gain from CON
Ceredigion PC PC gain from LD
Clwyd South LAB No change
Clwyd West CON No change
Cynon Valley LAB No change
Delyn LAB No change
Dwyfor Meirionnydd PC No change
Gower LAB LAB gain from CON
Islwyn LAB No change
Llanelli LAB No change
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney LAB No change
Monmouth CON No change
Montgomeryshire CON No change
Neath LAB No change
Newport East LAB No change
Newport West LAB No change
Ogmore LAB No change
Pontypridd LAB No change
Preseli Pembrokeshire CON No change
Rhondda PC PC gain from LAB
Swansea East LAB No change
Swansea West LAB No change
Torfaen LAB No change
Vale of Clwyd CON No change
Vale of Glamorgan CON No change
Wrexham LAB No change
Ynys Môn PC PC gain from LAB



The outlook in Wales is very interesting and I think it may be fairly accurate, though I wonder if Plaid Cymru’s gains are slightly overstates; I think 5-6 might be a more realistic target.


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