Local Elections – Scotland Analysis

All of Scotland’s 32 councils had local elections to them on 4th May and they give the most real data possible to try and see what might happen at the General Election on 8th June.

 

Now I have to put a massive caveat on this – people vote differently at local elections than at the General Election.  Still it is the best data we can go on from some area and potentially better than that of the polls.

 

Methodology

To do this, I’ve looked at all of the local electoral division boundaries and assigned them to a constituency.  For many this is a simple matter as they match or are wholly within constituency boundaries.  Where there has been overlap between constituency boundaries, the area that has the highest population is put in the relevant constituency; it isn’t foolproof but it is as accurate as it can be.

 

In six of the constituencies, the combined vote share of independent candidates was higher than that from established political parties.  In fact in many areas the overall independent vote share was very high, causing another problem for accuracy.  In two constituencies I’ve discounted the results entirely as over 80% of the vote share was for independents – these areas were Shetland & Orkney and Na h-Eileanan an Iar (the Western Isles).  In the other areas I’ve simply assigned the ‘win’ to the party with the highest vote share after the independents.

 

Overall results

The overall result for Scotland comes out as follows (this includes assuming Shetland & Orkney remains Liberal Democrat and Na h-Eileanan an Iar remains SNP)

  • SNP: 37 Seats (-19 seats from 2015
  • Conservatives: 17 Seats (+16 seats from 2015)
  • Labour: 3 Seats (+2 seats from 2015)
  • Liberal Democrats  2 Seats (+1 seat from 2015)

 

Constituency by Constituency

Constituency Predicted 2017 Winner Change from 2015
Aberdeen North SNP SNP Hold
Aberdeen South CON CON Gain from SNP
Airdrie and Shotts SNP SNP Hold
Angus CON CON Gain from SNP
Argyll & Bute SNP SNP Hold
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock CON CON Gain from SNP
Banff & Buchan CON CON Gain from SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk CON CON Gain from SNP
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross SNP SNP Hold
Central Ayrshire CON CON Gain from SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill LAB LAB Gain from SNP
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East SNP SNP Hold
Dumfries and Galloway CON CON Gain from SNP
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale CON CON Hold
Dundee East SNP SNP Hold
Dundee West SNP SNP Hold
Dunfermline and West Fife SNP SNP Hold
East Dunbartonshire SNP SNP Hold
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow SNP SNP Hold
East Lothian LAB LAB Gain from SNP
East Renfrewshire CON CON Gain from SNP
Edinburgh East SNP SNP Hold
Edinburgh North & Leith SNP SNP Hold
Edinburgh South CON CON gain from LAB
Edinburgh South West CON CON Gain from SNP
Edinburgh West LD LD Gain from SNP
Falkirk SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow Central SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow East SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow North SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow North East SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow North West SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow South SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow South West SNP SNP Hold
Glenrothes SNP SNP Hold
Gordon CON CON Gain from SNP
Inverclyde SNP SNP Hold
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey SNP SNP Hold
Kilmarnock and Loudoun SNP SNP Hold
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath SNP SNP Hold
Lanark and Hamilton East LAB LAB Gain from SNP
Linlithgow and East Falkirk SNP SNP Hold
Livingston SNP SNP Hold
Midlothian SNP SNP Hold
Moray CON CON Gain from SNP
Motherwell and Wishaw SNP SNP Hold
Na h-Eileanan an Iar SNP SNP Hold
North Ayrshire and Arran SNP SNP Hold
North East Fife SNP SNP Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire CON CON Gain from SNP
Orkney and Shetland LD LD Hold
Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP SNP Hold
Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP SNP Hold
Perth and North Perthshire CON CON Gain from SNP
Ross, Skye and Lochaber SNP SNP Hold
Rutherglen and Hamilton West SNP SNP Hold
Stirling CON CON Gain from SNP
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine CON CON Gain from SNP
West Dunbartonshire SNP SNP Hold

 

Conclusion

If the above is true, then the SNP are facing a very tough night.  It would appear that voters who want to vote for a party other than the SNP are turning to the Conservatives.  Why is this the case? All I can think is that Labour aren’t perceived as strong enough and that people don’t necessarily want to turn to the Liberal Democrats for a protest vote anymore.

 

In reality I think the SNP will lose some seats but not as many as the model suggests, I would expect them to keep at least 40 and I would be surprised if the Conservatives reach double figures.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s